The NFL is back, and with it comes one of the best betting opportunities of the season—Week 1. Every year, opening lines offer sharp bettors early value before injuries, hype, and public money shift the markets. This year is no different. With several mismatches on the schedule, key betting trends from last season, and a few live underdogs, Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is ripe for strategic wagers. Let’s explore where the value lies, which teams are mispriced, and how to time your bets wisely before the lines inevitably move.
Underdogs, Home Field, and Totals: Last Year’s Betting Blueprint
Before placing any Week 1 bets, it’s crucial to recognize how favorites and underdogs performed last season. Favorites went 194-78 straight up, and 142-122-8 against the spread (ATS). While that’s a winning record, it means underdogs still covered nearly 46% of the time. Road underdogs in particular held value, going 72-85-4 ATS.
Home field advantage played a noticeable role. Last season, home teams went 145-127 straight up and 135-129-8 against the spread. Home favorites were particularly strong, finishing 114-47 straight up. This context adds interest to matchups like Eagles vs. Cowboys and Broncos vs. Titans, where both home teams are currently favored—though not necessarily by a full touchdown at every sportsbook. Monitor line movement to confirm the spread before betting.
Another trend to watch: the Under hit in 53% of games. That’s a telling number early in the season, where offensive rust is often noticeable and defenses are fresher. FanDuel Sportsbook bettors should keep that in mind, especially when analyzing totals during the opening weeks.
Must-Watch Matchups With Betting Value
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The NFL’s 2025 season opener features an intense NFC East rivalry. Dallas enters with a revamped offense and a healthy Dak Prescott, but they’ll be up against a Super Bowl-winning Philadelphia squad that hasn’t lost a regular-season home game in over a year.
The Eagles are -7 favorites, and history suggests they’re worth backing at home. They swept Dallas last year and outscored them by 62 points. Expect a dominant performance.
Recommended Bet: Eagles -7, Over 46.5
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
While technically a Chargers home game, this AFC West battle takes place in São Paulo. Kansas City has won seven straight over LA and enters with more stability. The Chiefs are -3 favorites, and as long as Mahomes is under center, laying the points makes sense.
Recommended Bet: Chiefs -3, Over 44.5
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one could swing fast. Despite being underdogs, the Falcons swept the Bucs last year and are now better on both sides of the ball. With a young offense ready to explode, this might be one of the week’s sharper underdog plays.
Recommended Bet: Falcons +2.5, Over 48.5
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland’s quarterback situation remains unresolved, while the Bengals are poised for another AFC title run. The Bengals split their series with the Browns last year, winning one and losing one. Still, with a healthy roster and playoff expectations, Cincinnati enters Week 1 with the upper hand.
Recommended Bet: Bengals -5.5, Over 44.5
Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens
This Sunday night showdown could be a playoff preview. Buffalo’s offense is more polished, and they’ve consistently defended home turf against Baltimore. At -1.5, the Bills offer slight value before that line moves closer to a field goal.
Recommended Bet: Bills -1.5, Over 51.5
The Games That Demand Early Wagers
Certain lines won’t last. Market movement is already expected on these matchups:
Detroit Lions (+1.5) at Green Bay Packers
This line likely flips by kickoff. Detroit has won six of the last seven versus Green Bay and remains one of the most balanced teams in the NFC. For those following NFL team news and analysis, this matchup highlights just how dominant the Lions have been lately. The Lions are 8-0 in their last eight road games and a perfect 6-1 against the spread versus the Packers. Expect a shootout.
Recommended Bet: Lions +1.5, Over 48.5
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans
This line is on the verge of hitting -3 or higher. The Rams added Davante Adams and possess one of the league’s most dangerous passing attacks. Houston, meanwhile, weakened its offensive line. The Rams defense should dominate the trenches.
Recommended Bet: Rams -2.5, Under 45.5
Chicago Bears (-1.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Chicago is a popular preseason darling with new head coach Ben Johnson and a revitalized offense. Minnesota’s quarterback uncertainty will keep early bettors away. If the buzz around Bears camp is positive, this line could climb past a field goal.
Recommended Bet: Bears -1.5, Over 45.5
Beware the Overreaction: Fade the Public Darlings
While the Patriots are slight favorites over the Raiders, there’s early skepticism about whether New England deserves to be laying a field goal. The Raiders upgraded at quarterback and bring more weapons on offense. The market has given the Pats too much credit too soon.
Recommended Bet: Raiders +3
Also, be cautious with teams like the 49ers, who saw massive offseason turnover. They’re slim road favorites in Seattle, but the Seahawks have more roster stability and a proven home advantage. Seattle has quietly won six of the last eight games overall and five straight at home versus San Francisco.
Recommended Bet: Seahawks +1.5
Lock These In Before the Lines Move
Certain games carry more urgency for early bettors. Three stand out for Week 1:
- Buffalo Bills (-1.5): Home field, playoff pedigree, and consistent recent dominance over Baltimore,
- Denver Broncos (-7.5): Hosting a rookie quarterback with an elite defense and a playoff-caliber roster,
- Detroit Lions (+1.5): A recent history of owning the Packers and one of the most complete teams in the league.
All three matchups present lines that are likely to shift with preseason narratives, training camp buzz, and injuries.
How to Time Your Week 1 Bets
Timing can be as important as the pick. If you’re eyeing underdogs or overs, betting early often brings the best value. That’s especially true before public money starts flowing in the final week before kickoff. On the other hand, if you like big favorites, waiting can sometimes lead to better lines as sportsbooks balance exposure.
Look for soft numbers in closely matched games. For example, Lions-Packers and Colts-Dolphins could swing by multiple points as public perception evolves. Grab the value before the market adjusts.
*Content reflects information available as of [29/07/2025]; subject to change.
